Long Term Interval Demand Forecasting for Air Transportation Networks

Bachir Amadou
Luis Gustavo Zelaya Cruz
Mohamed Sbihi
Daniel Delahaye

Universidade Federal Fluminense, Campus de Rio das Ostras

Event: XVII SITRAER – São Paulo, SP, Brasil, October 22–24, 2018
Volume: Proceedings of XVII SITRAER – Air Transportation Symposium · ISSN 2448-1912
Pages: 144–147
Publisher: Universidade de São Paulo, Escola Politécnica (POLI-USP)
Editors: João Batista Camargo Júnior

Abstract

In this study we consider the problem of generating long term predictions of demand for an air transport network linking a set of domestic airports so that long term capacity investments at these airports can be planned accordingly. In the considered area the concurrent as well as complementary transport modality is ground transportation. Based on demographic and economic projections, generation and attraction studies are available at different stages of the considered horizon, providing for passengers and freight flows prediction intervals. These intervals are modelized as fuzzy dual numbers allowing the development of specific modal assignment and trip distribution problems. Modal choice and traffic flows distributions are imbedded in an entropy maximization scheme which is solved along the successive stages of the planning process where traffic predictions at airports are then given by real intervals. This process can be coupled with a Dynamic Programming scheme to generate the corresponding additional capacity components to the network of airports.

Keywords: Air transport planning; networks; long term demand forecasting; entropy maximization; fuzzy intervals

How to cite

ABNT

AMADOU, Bachir; CRUZ, Luis Gustavo Zelaya; SBIHI, Mohamed; DELAHAYE, Daniel. Long Term Interval Demand Forecasting for Air Transportation Networks. In: SIMPÓSIO DE TRANSPORTE AÉREO, 17., 2018, São Paulo. Anais [...]. São Paulo: USP/Escola Politécnica, 2018. p. 144-147. ISSN 2448-1912. Disponível em: https://sitraer-sbta.org/anais-2018-p144.html.

APA

Amadou, B., Cruz, L. G. Z., Sbihi, M., & Delahaye, D. (2018). Long Term Interval Demand Forecasting for Air Transportation Networks. In J. B. Camargo Júnior (Eds.), Proceedings of XVII SITRAER – Air Transportation Symposium (pp. 144–147). USP/Escola Politécnica. https://sitraer-sbta.org/anais-2018-p144.html

BibTeX

@inproceedings{amadou2018long,
  author = {Amadou, Bachir and Cruz, Luis Gustavo Zelaya and Sbihi, Mohamed and Delahaye, Daniel},
  title = {{Long Term Interval Demand Forecasting for Air Transportation Networks}},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of XVII SITRAER – Air Transportation Symposium},
  editor = {Camargo Júnior, João Batista},
  pages = {144--147},
  year = {2018},
  address = {São Paulo, SP, Brasil},
  publisher = {Universidade de São Paulo, Escola Politécnica (POLI-USP)},
  issn = {2448-1912},
  url = {https://sitraer-sbta.org/anais-2018-p144.html}
}