Explainable Artificial Intelligence Applied to Active Runway Configuration and Dynamic Airport Capacity Prediction

Igor Galhano Gomes
Mayara Condé Rocha Murça
Marcelo Xavier Guterres

Aeronautics Institute of Technology

Event: XX SITRAER – Joinville, SC, Brasil, October 18–20, 2023
Volume: Proceedings of XX SITRAER – Air Transportation Symposium · ISSN 2448-1912
Pages: 113–123
Publisher: Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)
Editors: Renata Cavion, Rafael Gigena Cuenca

Abstract

Despite the widespread use of machine learning methods in a variety of studies in the aviation industry in recent years, there has been limited progress in achieving explainability for the results generated by these models. Given the importance of explainable predictive models for trustworthy decision support in the context of Air Traffic Management (ATM), this study explores the use of Multilayer Perceptron and Random Forests, along with a Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) approach, to develop predictive models capable of generating interpretable forecasts of airport runway configuration and dynamic capacity. The machine learning process is based on historical weather, flight demand and actual air traffic movement data for Sao Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport. The predictive models are able to deliver runway configuration forecasts with an accuracy higher than 87.73% and arrival/departure capacity forecasts with errors as low as 1.309. With LIME, consistent explanations are obtained through the models on each prediction. An interactive predictive tool is created to output the runway configuration and capacity forecasts as well as the main contributing factors for each forecast within a 24-hour forecasting horizon. This research aims to improve decision-making by integrating predictive models and explanatory models into applications that provide useful information for ATM.

Keywords: Airport Capacity; Runway Configuration; Machine Learning; Explainable Artificial Intelligence; LIME

How to cite

ABNT

GOMES, Igor Galhano; MURÇA, Mayara Condé Rocha; GUTERRES, Marcelo Xavier. Explainable Artificial Intelligence Applied to Active Runway Configuration and Dynamic Airport Capacity Prediction. In: SIMPÓSIO DE TRANSPORTE AÉREO, 20., 2023, Joinville. Anais [...]. Joinville: UFSC, 2023. p. 113-123. ISSN 2448-1912. Disponível em: https://sitraer-sbta.org/anais-2023-sit2298.html.

APA

Gomes, I. G., Murça, M. C. R., & Guterres, M. X. (2023). Explainable Artificial Intelligence Applied to Active Runway Configuration and Dynamic Airport Capacity Prediction. In R. Cavion, & R. G. Cuenca (Eds.), Proceedings of XX SITRAER – Air Transportation Symposium (pp. 113–123). UFSC. https://sitraer-sbta.org/anais-2023-sit2298.html

BibTeX

@inproceedings{gomes2023explainable,
  author = {Gomes, Igor Galhano and Murça, Mayara Condé Rocha and Guterres, Marcelo Xavier},
  title = {{Explainable Artificial Intelligence Applied to Active Runway Configuration and Dynamic Airport Capacity Prediction}},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of XX SITRAER – Air Transportation Symposium},
  editor = {Cavion, Renata and Cuenca, Rafael Gigena},
  pages = {113--123},
  year = {2023},
  address = {Joinville, SC, Brasil},
  publisher = {Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)},
  issn = {2448-1912},
  url = {https://sitraer-sbta.org/anais-2023-sit2298.html}
}